A Hierarchical Bayesian approach to small area estimation of health insurance coverage in Ethiopian administrative zones for better policies and programs.

Sample surveys are extensively used to provide reliable direct estimates for large areas or domains with enough sample sizes at national and regional levels. However, zones are unplanned domains by the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) program and need more sample sizes to produce direct survey estimates with adequate precision. Conducting surveys in small areas (like zones) is too expensive and time-consuming, making it unfeasible for developing countries like Ethiopia. Therefore, this study aims to use the Hierarchical Bayes (HB) Small Area Estimation (SAE) model to estimate the Community-Based Health Insurance (CBHI) coverage at the zone levels in Ethiopia. To achieve this, we combined the 2019 Ethiopia Mini-Demographic and Health Survey (EMDHS) data with the 2007 population census data. SAE has addressed the challenge of producing reliable parameter estimates for small or even zero sample sizes across Ethiopian zones by utilizing auxiliary information from the population census. The results show that model-based estimates generated by the SAE approach are more accurate than direct survey estimates of CBHI. A map of CBHI scheme coverage was also used to visualize the spatial variation in the distribution of CBHI scheme coverage. From the CBHI scheme coverage map, we noticed notable variations in CBHI scheme coverage across Ethiopian zones. Additionally, this research identified areas with high and low CBHI scheme coverage to improve decision-making and increase coverage in Ethiopia. One of the novelties of this paper is estimating the non-sampled zones; therefore, the policymakers will give equal attention similar to the sampled zones.

Mapping the spatial disparities of HIV prevalence in Ethiopian zones using the generalized additive model.

HIV is a worldwide social and health pandemic that poses a significant problem. This study contributes to the 2030 global agenda of reducing HIV prevalence. The study analyzed HIV prevalence using the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey data. The study included men aged 15-54 years and women aged 15-49 years who responded to questions about HIV tests. A generalized geo-additive model (GAM) was fitted to HIV data using nonparametric smooth terms for geolocations. Two smoothing techniques were used in GAMs to evaluate spatial disparities and the probable effects of variables on HIV risk. There were certain areas in Ethiopia that were identified as hot spot zones for HIV, including Nuer and Agnuak in Gambella, West Wollega and Illubabor in Oromia, Benchi Maji and Shaka in SNNPR, Awsi, Fantana, Kilbet, and Gabi in the Afar region, Shinilie of the Somalia region, North and South Wollo, Oromia special zones of the Amhara region, Central Ethiopia, and Addis Ababa city. On the other hand, the eastern parts of Ethiopia, particularly most zones in the Somalia region, were identified as cold spot zones with the lowest HIV odds ratio. The odds of HIV+ were higher for those who reside in rural areas than in urban areas. Furthermore, people who have STIs, who used contraceptive methods, and who learned at the secondary level of education were more likely to be infected with HIV. After adjusting for confounding variables, the results indicated that there are substantially significant spatial variations in HIV prevalence across Ethiopian zones. These results provide essential information to strategically target geographic areas to allocate resources and policy interventions at zonal level administrations.

Sizes of atmospheric particulate matters determine the outcomes of their interactions with rainfall processes.

Environmental sustainability remains at risk, given the coupled trends of economic development with air pollution. The risk is even greater in the water-stressed world, given the potential suppression effects of air pollutants on rain formation. Here, since these suppression effects remain debated, we tested the hypothesis that air pollutants suppress rainfall in the water-stressed South Africa. This was done by fitting generalized linear models to a 21-year historical dataset of rainfall and air pollutants. We found that some gaseous pollutants and PM10 show a significant negative correlation with rainfall, perhaps due to the temperature inversion they cause, which might prevent the upward rise of humid air and convective clouds to grow high enough to produce rain. Surprisingly, as opposed to PM10, we found a rather positive significant effect of PM2.5. Altogether, our study supports the hypothesis of rain prevention by pollutants but provides some nuances that are dependent on the size of air particle matters. To achieve environmental sustainability while growing the economy, we can only rely on emission purification technologies to strike this trade-off.

Spatial small area estimates of undernutrition for under five children in Ethiopia via combining survey and census data.

A survey is typically designed to produce reliable estimates of target variables of the population at national and regional levels. For unplanned zones with small sample sizes, reliable estimates are needed in many ways. Because of the small sample sizes, direct survey estimates for unplanned zones are unreliable. This paper aims to improve the precision of estimates of undernutrition at zonal levels using small area estimation under the spatial Fay-Herriot (FH) model. Diagnostic measures are used to determine the reliability of spatial FH model assumptions and model-based spatial estimates. According to the results, model-based small area estimates under spatial association had higher precision than direct estimates and FH models that ignored spatial information. The spatial small area estimates of undernutrition were unevenly distributed across Ethiopian zones. Undernutrition estimates for children under five at the zonal level can be helpful for resource allocation, policymakers, and planners.

Small Area Estimation of Undernutrition under Age Five Children Based on Spatial-Temporal Models.

The mean flow of direct survey estimates is mainly concerning the sample adequacy fulfillment unless it has been produced large variance estimates, and therefore, the small area estimations are developed to manage this flaw of the path. Small area estimation improved the direct survey estimates by borrowing strength from the census data and at the same time by using historical data from consecutive surveys. In this paper, we applied the spatiotemporal Fay-Herriot (STFH) model for producing fairly reliable disaggregate-level estimates of undernutrition indicators across all zones. The STFH model is an appropriately fitted model to the undernutrition data since it has the lowest information criteria (IC) value. The spatiotemporal estimates improved both the direct and spatial estimates of undernutrition under the FH model and have brought efficiency gain in the percent coefficient of variation (CV). These results may provide useful information to the government's planners, policymakers, and legislative organs for effective policy formulation and budget allocation in all zones.